Estratégia De Negociação Forex A Longo Prazo

Tiger Trading Gráficos de longo prazo para os comerciantes Trades. Stock moeda de curto prazo, muitas vezes adicionar moedas para carteiras, a fim de beneficiar das oportunidades incríveis que a troca de moeda pode apresentar Embora seja verdade que os estoques exigem um conjunto diferente de análises, há o suficiente Em comum entre as duas classes de ativos que deve permitir um comerciante de ações para se adaptar muito facilmente ao comércio de moeda Embora o método a seguir é projetado como um comércio swing que pode ser realizada por muitos dias ou semanas, também é possível usar a metodologia de negociação de tigre Para manter a posição ainda mais, enquanto o comércio continua a ser rentável Para saber mais sobre como as moedas são negociadas Forex Wading In The Currency Market TUTORIAL Analisando Chart Patterns. Why o Tiger Parece que as características animais podem ser usados ​​de forma bastante eficaz para descrever o comerciante humano Atributos Não se esqueça que os touros podem ganhar dinheiro, e assim pode ursos, mas por que a referência ao tigre Um tigre é um caçador prodigioso e tem o provérbio Bial paciência de um gato Ele pode sentar e esperar até que as chances de uma caçada bem-sucedida são muito elevados Para aqueles comerciantes com características de personalidade semelhantes, trocando a forma como um tigre caça pode ser muito lucrativo. O que é um gráfico de longo prazo Para ser Um comerciante de tigre, os investidores precisam posicionar-se de modo que a oportunidade de comércio pode ser melhor visto a distância, por assim dizer Para obter a visão geral do mercado e da forma como tem sido comercial, devemos sempre olhar para o gráfico semanal Para estoque O gráfico semanal pode ser um gráfico relativamente curto prazo comparado com gráficos mensais ou mesmo anuais. No entanto, nos mercados forex, os gráficos semanais são considerados de longo prazo, a partir de uma perspectiva do comerciante. O que é especial sobre o gráfico semanal A Gráfico semanal nos mercados de forex é o único marco de tempo que mostra um fechamento de verdade O fechamento é na tarde de sexta-feira às 5:00 EST, e os mercados de forex abrir novamente no domingo às 5:00 EST gráficos diários nos mercados de forex don t realmente perto, é Um tempo de liquidação, que muda dependendo de qual mercado forex você está negociando em Por exemplo, o mercado de Nova York abre no domingo às 5:00 EST em Nova York No dia seguinte, o New York fecha às 5:00 EST para liquidação e apenas um minuto mais tarde , O mercado reabre e todos os negócios recomeçam Não há nenhuma noite, porque assim que New York fecha, Austrália abre então, os mercados de forex negociam 24 horas em torno do pulso de disparo até sexta-feira em 5pm EST. Using um gráfico semanal Figura 1, nós Ser capaz de desenhar as nossas linhas na areia, se estas são linhas de tendência linhas Fibonacci Linhas Gann, tops duplos ou fundos etc Estas linhas são tipicamente extraídos a partir do semanalmente alta ou pontos baixos semanais, bem como no fechamento semanal Isso ajudará a medir Onde os comerciantes a mais longo prazo estão focalizando Desde que os comerciantes a mais longo prazo são geralmente os comerciantes da posição que são geralmente interessados ​​em oportunidades do comércio do carregador, tendem a fazer exame posições maiores, e conseqüentemente, coletivamente são completamente influentes em criar um di Se as reversões ocorrem frequentemente em níveis de Fibonacci são um resultado de alguma ordem natural que o mercado obedece, ou se os níveis de Fibonacci têm o crédito porque os comerciantes assim os vêem, e conseqüentemente o comércio fora destes níveis, não importa realmente , Desde que esses níveis exibam alguma validade. Obter uma visão geral Para um comércio de tigre, o período de tempo mais longo domina o período de tempo mais curto Em outras palavras, os sinais de um gráfico semanal são mais pronunciados do que os sinais de um gráfico diário Os períodos de tempo mais curtos podem realmente oscilar e gerar sinais alternativos de compra ou venda, mesmo que a tendência mais longa permaneça intacta. No entanto, quando o período de tempo mais longo mostra que os preços se aproximam de um nível de reversão potencial, precisamos alternar para o período de tempo mais curto, Indicador principal sobre se o ponto de reversão mostrado no período de tempo mais longo é provável que tenha qualquer tração Para saber mais sobre gráficos semanais, confira Análise de fim de semana AP At Forex Profits. Keep it Simple Então, desenhamos um gráfico do par de moedas que desejamos trocar, definido como um frame de tempo semanal veja a Figura 2 abaixo e depois outro conjunto para um frame de tempo diário, Figura 3 abaixo Em ambos os gráficos , Adicionamos um indicador de Índice de Força Relativa RSI ajustado para um intervalo de dois períodos Além disso, somamos três médias móveis simples cada um sendo definido para 20 períodos. Nós definimos a primeira média móvel para 20, mas calculada sobre os altos, a segunda calculada em Os baixos ea terceira média móvel de 20 períodos sobre o último preço ou preço de fechamento. Usaremos o RSI como um filtro para determinar quando comprar ou quando vender e as linhas de equilíbrio serão usadas como uma indicação da tendência e como O preço move-se da tendência para o sentimento extremo Esperançosamente, o software que você usa permitirá que você faça isto Para ver mais na cartografia verifique por favor para fora Charting sua maneira aos retornos melhores. Compreenda os excitadores fundamentais Por exemplo, se nós estamos negociando o EUR USD Nós podemos assistir para o comm Trichet, o actual presidente do Banco Central Europeu ECB para entender se o BCE é susceptível de aumentar as taxas de juro na zona do euro Se os Estados Unidos está mantendo as taxas baixas, mas há uma possibilidade de que o BCE é hawkish sobre a inflação e poderia Elevar as taxas de juros, então queremos ser longos o euro contra o dollar. A Tiger Personalidade Lembre-se a personalidade do tigre que significa a paciência de um gato Precisamos estar preparados para esperar até que todas as estrelas estão em alinhamento, ou seja, o preço está em Um ponto de reversão extrema, ou a tendência está puxando de volta ao equilíbrio, o que proporcionará uma oportunidade de ter um comércio a um preço melhor Se qualquer um desses dois fatores deve ocorrer, podemos nos preparar para atacar Para mais sobre a negociação como um tigre, Leia a paciência é a virtude de um comerciante. Visão geral de um comércio de tigre Primeiro, vamos fazer referência ao gráfico semanal do DXY para ver se o preço está se aproximando de um padrão ou uma linha de tendência, ou um suporte Fibonacci ou linha de resistência Na figura 1, nós Use o gráfico semanal do DXY Dollar Index para obter uma visão geral do sentimento em relação ao dólar O preço está se aproximando de um top duplo Desde o índice DXY ou dólar é composto por seis moedas oferece uma perspectiva rápida da força geral do dólar ou fraqueza. Figura 1 Weekly Dollar Index. Chart cortesia Wordon Brothers. Markets pode overreact Os mercados podem e não reagir exageradamente porque emocional seres humanos overreact Isso leva a um desvio do ponto de equilíbrio, até que algum ponto extremo é atingido e, em seguida, com o tempo, o pêndulo vai começar a Reverter para a média Esta escalonamento para trás e para trás do centro é chamado de volatilidade e é o que fornece o tigre com a oportunidade de fazer um gancho rentável Para ler mais sobre como os mercados são afetados, leia Volatilidade s Impacto sobre o mercado Returnss. Finding um conjunto semanal - Up Ao escanear através de todas as principais moedas, observamos que o gráfico semanal Figura 2 do euro-dólar está se aproximando do 127 6 Fibonacci extensão Poderíamos concluir que o c Oincidence, um top duplo no um e um nível de apoio Fibonacci no outro, indica uma oportunidade de alta chance para um comércio USD EUR. Figure 2 Weekly EUR USD. Chart cortesia Wordon Brothers. O gráfico diário - Sinal de entrada Uma vez que estamos felizes Que há uma oportunidade de brewing, podemos mudar para baixo para um gráfico diário figura 3, abaixo do EUR USD para observar o que acontece como o preço se aproxima da extensão 127 6 Nós também assistir para ver se o RSI pode atingir o nível 5, que Indicaria um sentimento muito sobrevendido e extremo Ao ouvir a conversa no mercado, ouvimos vários especialistas dizer que o euro vai chegar a paridade com o dólar eo consenso geral no mercado é ser curto o euro. Figura 3 Diário EUR USD Neste ponto, também é importante observar o que acontece na linha de 127 Fibonacci e ver que tipo de padrão de vela padrão. Normalmente, um martelo girando top ou doji seria uma indicação de mudança de sentimento pelo A combinação do DXY em um top duplo, o USD EUR semanal em uma extensão de 127 Fibonacci, o RSI em cerca de 5 e um spinning top formando no gráfico diário indica um comércio potencial. A ordem é colocada no mercado para ir por muito tempo o EUR USD se quebra acima do alto do topo girando em 1 2015 e, se executado, uma ordem stop loss é colocada em 1 1870. O risco é 140 pips Para cada contrato padrão de 100.000 o valor de um pip é 10 Portanto, o valor em dólar do risco é 1.400 Este risco não deve representar mais de 2 de capital de negociação, o que significa que devemos ter 70.000 capital próprio em nossas contas ou de outra forma negociar, Na Figura 4, o EUR USD prossegue para 1 3200 antes de quaisquer sinais de uma correção real ou mudança potencial na tendência São observadas, e as oportunidades O comércio põe-se de volta às linhas mais baixas do canal de equilíbrio. O comércio seria interrompido por uma parada de arrasto abaixo do canal se esse nível fosse alcançado. Alternativamente, uma parada de arrasto poderia ser definida Para cortar o comércio por 50 e para permitir que os 50 restantes permaneçam abertos contanto que o comércio remanesce rentável. O valor deste comércio é aproximadamente 1.200 pips, que para um contrato padrão seria igual a 12.000 A relação do risco-à-recompensa é 1200 140 ou 8 57 vezes, certamente digno de um tigre paciente A margem necessária para tomar este comércio é de aproximadamente 1.200 O ROI é 12.000 1.200 ou 1000.The Bottom Line Trading Tiger não é para aqueles sem paciência É necessário deixar o mercado Venha a você em vez de perseguir o mercado no medo de perder um comércio Se você perder o comércio, ser consolado há sempre outra oportunidade Apenas sentar e esperar pacientemente, mas lembre-se o provérbio velho, fortuna favorece a mente bem preparada Para aprender De som E do melhor investidor, verifique a sabedoria financeira de três homens sábios. Por que nós Da tecnologia mais recente para proteger seus fundos, ver por que razão re o melhor parceiro comercial. Regulatory Autorização Admiral Markets UK Ltd é regulada pela Autoridade de Conduta Financeira no Reino Unido. Contate-nos Deixar o gabarito, fazer perguntas, deixar cair por nosso escritório ou chamar-nos simplesmente. Notícia Verifique para fora a maioria de notícia recente sobre nossa companhia, eventos, negociando negociação de posições condicional. A idéia atrás desta aproximação está fazendo menos transações que produzem lucros individuais maiores Os comerciantes que aproveitam esta estratégia visam geralmente fazer pelo menos 200 pips por o comércio, suas oportunidades são muito mais limitadas. Como resultado, os comerciantes que usam esta aproximação exigem a preparação completa e o conhecimento substancial. Estratégias a longo prazo para negociar O comércio de FXPositional exemplifica como Para negociar Forex a longo prazo Trata-se de identificar uma tendência, em seguida, segui-lo por semanas ou meses. Em alguns casos, os comerciantes têm seguido uma tendência de mais de um ano Wh Por exemplo, especuladores como George Soros fortemente shorted a libra britânica em 1992 Eles estavam céticos da capacidade do Reino Unido para manter as taxas de câmbio fixas na época O país Puxou a libra do ERM 22 de setembro de 1992 e Soros fez mais de 1 bilhão no negócio. Se você está procurando um exemplo mais prático de uma estratégia de longo prazo de negociação de moeda, abra uma posição longa sobre o USD GBP, com base em sua crença Que o par de moeda vai empurrar mais alto após a próxima eleição britânica Depois de descobrir como o par de moedas se move pós-eleição, você pode fechar esta posição ou mantê-lo aberto. Tenha em mente que se você trocar o GBP USD você deve considerar econômico Eventos não só no Reino Unido, mas também nos EUA Conduta análise aprofundada sobre as economias das duas moedas e certifique-se de avaliar o potencial de eventos imprevistos. Esta informação é tudo que você precisa para desenvolver um Forex t de longo prazo Mas hey mais educação é sempre uma boa idéia. Um exemplo de estratégia de longo prazo. A seção anterior forneceu algumas informações gerais sobre a negociação Forex a longo prazo Agora vamos olhar para uma estratégia de longo prazo em maior detalhe. Vamos dizer Você é um comerciante de Forex com sede nos EUA e alguns eventos políticos ocorreram que provavelmente irá impactar USD Usando as informações que você tem à sua disposição, você deve analisar onde o dólar vai. Se você acha que há uma boa chance a moeda vai Mover-se em linha com sua previsão, você pode começar sua estratégia negociando de Forex a longo prazo abrindo uma posição de par USD que reflete sua predição. Mas antes de fazer assim, você deve considerar onde a segunda moeda irá provavelmente Se você quer ser conservador, Escolha uma cotação onde você acha que a segunda moeda terá a maior quantidade de estabilidade. Por exemplo, se os desenvolvimentos que afetam seu par de moedas estão ligados ao Oriente Médio, sua análise pode revelar que o Japão não tem comércio apertado concordam Com os países da região eo iene japonês JPY tem historicamente experimentado estabilidade. Esta informação pode levar você a pensar que o par perfeito para este comércio seria o USD JPY. Uma vez que você descobrir isso, você deve verificar suas expectativas , Então lista todos os eventos conhecidos mais esperados e seus resultados Cobrindo todas essas variáveis ​​é como você desenvolver isso e qualquer outra estratégia de negociação de moeda de longo prazo. Como negociar Forex a longo prazo. Existem várias dicas que podem melhorar seu FX trading. For Não deixe suas emoções afetar o seu comércio, porque eles podem minar seriamente o seu desempenho Turning perder negócios em vencer pode ser um desafio, mas também pode ser difícil fechar uma posição cedo e perder em potenciais ganhos. Não importa o que Acontece, furar a sua estratégia. Cada vez que você abrir uma posição, prever onde a moeda vai ir e quão grande o movimento de preços será Você também deve garantir que cada comércio tem tanto um lucro alvo e como Top-loss. Always ter-los descobriu antes de começar a usar uma estratégia de longo prazo Forex. Praticar a longo prazo best practices. While todos tem uma abordagem diferente para a negociação, existem algumas orientações gerais que se aplicam à maioria dos comerciantes positional Estas diretrizes são Com base principalmente na gestão de risco e na natureza inerente do mercado de Forex. Vamos explorar como eles podem melhorar suas estratégias de negociação. Use alavancagem muito pequena. Ao fazer uma negociação de posição, você deve manter volumes que compõem uma pequena porcentagem de sua margem De suas principais considerações para o comércio de moeda a longo prazo é garantir que você pode facilmente sustentar qualquer intraday comum ou mesmo intra-semana volatility. Since um par de moedas pode facilmente mover algumas centenas de pips em um dia, você deve se certificar de que estas flutuações de preços ganhou t Desencadear um stop-loss.2 Preste atenção aos Swaps. While negociação Forex a longo prazo pode gerar receitas promissoras, o que realmente importa é lucro. Pague atenção aos swaps a taxa cobrada pela realização de um posit Os swaps podem ser positivos, mas em muitos casos, eles serão negativos independentemente da direção, então avaliar suas despesas é crucial para tornar as estratégias de Forex a longo prazo lucrativas. Em alguns casos, você pode usar uma estratégia onde o ganho de pip é pequeno Mas o Swap é favorável para você.3 Esforço vs retorno ratio. Keep em mente que mesmo com a melhor estratégia, você pode não atingir seu lucro alvo Isso poderia acontecer facilmente se você usar muito pouco alavancagem Se você só comércio com uma pequena quantidade de Capital, você deve esperar devoluções proporcionadas. Por causa disso, sempre considerar a quantidade de tempo gasto em negociação em comparação com as recompensas monetárias recebidas. Na maioria dos casos, você deve usar quantidades relativamente grandes de capital para fazer o esforço vs taxa de retorno vale a pena. Forma de obter uma melhor noção do retorno que você receberá para o seu tempo sem arriscar o seu capital é abrir uma conta demo. Por favor, habilite o JavaScript para ver os comentários powered by Disqus. Risk warning Trading f Troca de moeda ou contratos para diferenças sobre margem carrega um alto nível de risco e pode não ser adequado para todos os investidores Existe a possibilidade de que você possa sofrer uma perda igual ou maior do que todo o seu investimento Portanto, você não deve investir ou arriscar dinheiro Que você não pode dar ao luxo de perder Você deve garantir que você entenda todos os riscos Antes de usar os serviços Admiral Markets UK Ltd, por favor, reconhecer os riscos associados com trading. O conteúdo deste site não deve ser interpretado como conselhos pessoais Admiral Markets UK Ltd recomenda que você procure aconselhamento De um conselheiro financeiro independente. Admiral Markets UK Ltd é de propriedade total do Grupo Admiral Markets AS Admiral Markets Group AS é uma holding e seus ativos são uma participação controladora no Admiral Markets AS e suas subsidiárias, Admiral Markets UK Ltd e Admiral Markets Pty. Todas as referências neste site para Admiral Markets referem-se a Admiral Markets UK Ltd e subsidiárias da Admiral Markets Group AS. Admiral Markets UK Ltd é autorizada e regulada pela Autoridade de Conduta Financeira FCA Register No 595450.Admiral Markets UK Ltd é registrado na Inglaterra e País de Gales sob Companies House Número Registrado 08171762 Endereço da empresa 16 St Clare Street, Londres EC3N 1LQ, UK. Effective Long Term Strategies. Depois de observar meus clientes de comércio e observando a forma como certos pares de moedas se comportam tornou-se evidente para mim que é mais fácil negociar forex a longo prazo, então é para o comércio de curto prazo Existem muitas razões pelas quais é mais fácil negociar forex a longo prazo do que curto Termo abaixo são apenas alguns. Clique aqui para encomendar a sua cópia do VXX Tendência Estratégia Seguindo hoje e ser um dos primeiros comerciantes a utilizar estas estratégias exclusivas Este guia vai fazer de você um comerciante melhor e mais poderoso. Primeiro, basta olhar para o Gráfico semanal para qualquer par de moedas, parece muito mais suave com muito menos ruído Nosso departamento de pesquisa tem testado sistemas diários, semanais, horários e outras freqüências menores de tempo intraday e i T é evidente que quanto maior a freqüência na tabela melhor o desempenho É mais fácil negociar cartas mais lisas. O mercado também tende a entrar em pânico e fazer movimentos drásticos Normalmente depois que comprar programas para instituições passo e corrigi-lo e os movimentos acabam Sendo apenas o ruído. Terceiro o mercado forex é não regulamentada e geralmente trocados fora de câmbio para o comerciante varejo, assim, a FCM s são capazes de pico do mercado, porque eles estão tomando um risco em um lote dos comércios Por spiking o mercado que pode fazer muito Dos comerciantes que têm paradas perto de perder seu dinheiro para o FCM Esta é uma tática utilizada pelos criadores de mercado Se você está negociando a longo prazo, você é muito menos propensos a perder nessas situações. Outra grande questão é comissões xeroF tem comissões muito altas em comparação com Outros mercados Isso geralmente é incorporado no spread Então, toda vez que você faz um comércio você está pagando 30 para o FCM Por negociação a longo prazo você está negociando menos e, portanto, não pagando como muito. A tendência é seu amigo. Propriedade que o mercado de forex oferece é que ele tende grande Neste artigo vou particularmente concentrar-se no EUR USD Isto é particularmente evidente em um quadro de prazo mais longo prazo, como um semanal onde todo o ruído diário é eliminado Abaixo está um exemplo de Um gráfico semanal do EUR USD com as velas Heikin-Ashi Trend Velas Heikin-Ashi Trend são uma grande ferramenta técnica japonesa cuja fórmula proprietária é benéfica para determinar a tendência esta ferramenta está disponível em um pacote de software que a minha empresa oferece, se você Gostaria de saber mais sobre o pacote que você pode participar de um seminário gratuito que eles realizam todas as quartas-feiras às 9:00 EST, clicando neste link. Olhe como bem o mercado tendência durante este período de 3 anos e quão bem o Heikin-Ashi Tendência Velas capturou a tendência. Keys to Trading the Trend. Now como você provavelmente já sabe que eu pregar risco e gestão de dinheiro e quando se trata de negociação de tendências nada pode ser mais importante que o gerenciamento de risco e dinheiro No próximo s Eu vou mostrar-lhe uma estratégia básica para a negociação da tendência Embora as reduções obter bastante elevado por causa dos inevitáveis ​​whipsaw períodos quando o mercado não se move a negociação a tendência pode ser mais fácil do que você pensa Agora, a principal qualidade que você precisa ter como Comerciante de tendência é um estômago forte, você realmente precisa ser capaz de sentar-se através das reduções e continuar a tomar mais e mais comércios Muitos comerciantes bem sucedidos comércio a tendência Eu tenho certeza que você conhece o Boston Red Sox, seu proprietário John W Henry fez um monte de Seu dinheiro negociação tendência Outro exemplo é a tartaruga comerciantes e Richard Donkien. Position Size Control. Now em primeiro lugar e acima de tudo é fundamental para controlar o tamanho da sua posição quando a negociação da tendência Esta é de longe a regra mais importante O whipsaws será vicioso e irá causar Você perder uma grande parte de sua conta se você está negociando a grande, para não mencionar ter um impacto drástico em você psicologicamente Muitos dos meus clientes don t usar paradas ou metas ou realmente seguir qualquer intensa techni O que eles fazem é simplesmente o comércio na direção da tendência geral, tentar negociar na direção do SWAP coletar juros e sentar-se através das reduções Se eles tinham grandes posições seriam facilmente margem chamada fora de seus comércios. É extremamente difícil manter o seu auto fora do mercado durante whipsaw períodos Isso é realmente próximo a impossível na minha opinião Como um comerciante você tem que tomar todas as trocas do sistema que o comércio, porque você nunca sabe qual será o grande break out O período que você estava esperando como um comerciante de tendência Agora a chave de um ponto de vista de gestão de risco é maximizar a quantidade que você faz sobre a tendência e minimizar a quantidade que você solta no whipsaw dentro do reino de seu sistema. Algumas maneiras de fazer isso Muitos comerciantes bem sucedidos piso utilizado para a pirâmide em seus comércios significado tomar uma posição e do que adicionar uma parcela menor como o preço mudou na direção de seu comércio Esta é uma boa estratégia, eu por Sonalmente gostaria de escalar nessas situações, o que significa que vou continuar adicionando o mesmo tamanho para a minha posição em cada ponto de gatilho Agora, a tática importante em cada uma dessas estratégias é sair de toda a posição, logo que você recebe um sinal de saída com base em Suas regras Isso poderia ser um sinal técnico ou alvo de lucro. A tática do punho é incrivelmente simples e foi testada de forma eficaz pelo nosso departamento de pesquisa. Outros filtros podem ser adicionados a esta tática para melhorá-lo. Um dos sistemas que nossa empresa ensina e vende é Uma variação desta estratégia. Long Entry e Exit. Enter quando o preço cruza acima das semanas anteriores high. Add à posição cada vez que o preço cruza acima de suas semanas anteriores alta Não insira mais de uma vez por semana, então se o preço cruza abaixo A semana anterior s alta e cruza acima não entre. Exit toda a posição longa quando o preço cruza abaixo da semana anterior low. If as semanas anteriores alta não é a mais alta alta do particular Mover não entre o trade. Short entrada e Exit. Enter quando o preço cruza abaixo da semana anterior s low. Add para a posição de cada vez que o preço cruza abaixo de sua semana anterior baixa Não insira mais de uma vez por semana, então se o preço Cruza acima da semana anterior alta s e cruza para trás abaixo não entre. Saia da posição curta inteira quando o preço cruza abaixo das semanas precedentes elevado. Se as semanas precedentes baixo não for a mais baixa baixa de um movimento particular não entrar no comércio . Essencialmente com esta estratégia você está sempre em um comércio Isso é porque você está lançando a posição e entrar com a quantidade mínima deve o comércio cruzar acima ou abaixo do nível-chave. Eu recomendo iniciar este sistema com 1 a 1 de alavancagem e escala No comércio em cada sinal Em outras palavras, você deve negociar este sistema com 1 mini lote por 10.000 em sua conta. No exemplo abaixo você iria entrar muito tempo com 1 unidade de sua posição cada vez que você vê o ponteiro e sair e virar o posit Íon quando você vê os polegares para baixo. Esta estratégia é extremamente simples e eficaz, desde que você gerenciar sua retirada corretamente Esta estratégia é um exemplo de como você pode usar parâmetros de gerenciamento de risco para melhorar o desempenho do seu sistema de comércio Eu recomendaria o uso de filtros adicionais Como ATR, ADX e Volatilidade, uma vez que ajudá-lo a avaliar a força da tendência Se você gostaria de aprender a nossa versão avançada deste sistema ou muitos outros sistemas que oferecemos, por favor contacte-me em. Alexander Nekritin é um profissional comerciante com Mais de 8 anos de experiência Suas especialidades incluem gestão de risco e desenvolvimento de sistemas Alexander é o CEO do que é um corretor de forex e empresa de educação que ajuda cliente s necessidades em forex trading Alexander tem um grau com uma concentração em Banca de Investimento e instrumentos derivados de Babson College em Massachusetts. Long Term Trading Estratégia para Forex. There são um monte de razões pelas quais eu acredito que a longo prazo tradin G define você para o sucesso mais do que usando menores prazos para o comércio, e eu vou entrar em várias dessas razões dentro deste artigo. Eu também colocar algumas dessas razões em um tom mais leve no meu Scalp vs Swing Artigo que tem começado muita atenção. A primeira coisa que eu quero fazer é esclarecer que quando eu digo o termo longo eu estou significando pelo menos olhar nos gráficos diários eu acredito que um dos grandes problemas com comerciantes de Forex hoje é que eles são Tão apanhados em curto prazo de negociação e scalping que, novamente, eu realmente tenho um tempo difícil acreditar comerciantes podem ser rentáveis ​​com, que nem sequer reconhecem o comércio de longo prazo is. I tiveram muitos comerciantes dizer algo parecido com isso para mim Eu quero começar a olhar para a negociação a longo prazo porque scalping não funcionou para mim Eu estou usando agora uma estratégia de longo prazo, a negociação das cartas de hora em hora. Veja, eu acho que a declaração acima é um dos problemas com Forex Traders hoje e por que tantos Ter muito problema em ser rentável. Razão, a maioria dos comerciantes, especialmente os novatos são tão inclinados em scalping que don t mesmo ter uma idéia realista do que o comércio a longo prazo é realmente eu sei que meu amigo, Zaheer vai concordar comigo sobre este one. So novamente, quando eu estou falando Sobre Long Term Trading, estou falando sobre o uso de gráficos semanais e até mesmo o mensal como seu guia para set-up potencial e alvos e, em seguida, talvez, usando um menor prazo para realmente executar o comércio para mais precision. Before eu obter Na estratégia real que eu quero compartilhar com você, eu quero cavar um pouco mais em por que a perspectiva certa é tão importante quando se trata de negociação estratégias de longo prazo Eu sei que muitos de vocês só se preocupam com as diretrizes da estratégia real, mas eu acredito Que as seguintes informações sobre a perspectiva e uma abordagem holística é realmente mais importante do que as diretrizes da estratégia comentário abaixo, se você concorda em desacordo comigo sobre isso. Como um exemplo de como esta mentalidade de curto prazo pode levá-lo em apuros, vamos s tak E olhar para o EUR USD. Someone olhando para o EUR USD em um gráfico de 4HR iria ver algo como this. EUR USD 4 HOUR CHART. No gráfico acima, você vê que há um monte de movimento de alta em direção a altos mais altos a partir deste Perspectiva, parece que todas as configurações de continuação bullish serão grandes entradas no entanto, uma visão de mais longo prazo do EUR USD na mesma hora exata diz uma história diferente. WEEKLY EUR USD CHART. You pode ver, olhando para o gráfico semanal , Que o USD de EUR está em uma tendência para baixo a longo prazo, e que o rally bullish na carta de 4HR é apenas um pull-back melhor que uma tendência raging como apareceu antes. Não somente é ele somente um pullback, mas é um Pullback em posição de resistência unsuspected insuspeitado se você olhar apenas para o 4HR e don t perceber o que está acontecendo a longo prazo. Se movermos um pouco à frente no tempo, você pode ver um pulo rebote fora do nível de resistência Para o comerciante ver apenas o 4HR gráfico, isto pode parecer um grande momento para comprar novamente em antecipação de Tendência de tendência bullish. buy configurar em eur usd. What o comerciante 4HR não pode perceber é que este não é um pullback da tendência de 4HR, mas sim uma continuação da tendência Weekly Então, onde o comerciante de longo prazo vê Evidente bearish potencial de continuação , O comerciante de curto prazo acha que isso é apenas um pullback. So para o comerciante 4HR, isso parece uma inversão inesperada grande no mercado, mas para um comerciante de longo prazo, é uma continuação óbvia e esperada do fluxo de mercado, olhando como este Na visão semanal. É por isso que é tão importante ter uma visão de longo prazo do mercado ESPECIALMENTE se você está indo chamar-se um comerciante de longo prazo Mais uma vez, tantas pessoas olhando para gráficos 4HR pensam que são comerciantes a longo prazo, mas Eles estão ignorando os quadros de tempo real a longo prazo e que pode te colocar em grandes problemas, assim como neste exemplo da vida real. Esses dois bares semanais de baixa você vê seria esmagar alguém tentando tomar posições longas no gráfico de 4 horas, no entanto, eles são apenas parte Do fluxo em A visão semanal. Agora, não estou dizendo que você não pode negociar rentável nos gráficos de 4HR Estou dizendo que é muito difícil fazer comércios consistentemente rentáveis ​​quando você não tem uma boa perspectiva dos mercados de longo prazo movimento, especialmente quando se tenta Negociar um quadro de tempo intermediário como o 1 ou 4 horas time. With que disse, vamos falar sobre a minha estratégia de longo prazo para os comerciantes que querem ser rentável e consistente. Uma nota importante sobre esta estratégia é que você deve ser disciplinado se você Quer ter sucesso Sim, você precisa ser disciplinado com todas as estratégias para esperar sucesso, mas em particular, se você quiser negociar uma estratégia de longo prazo de forma eficaz, você deve controlar suas emoções e desejo de entrar no mercado. Um dos maiores erros Que os comerciantes não rentáveis ​​fazem é over-trading e super-gestão de seus negócios Como seres humanos, temos o desejo de ação e envolvimento que tende a causar-nos sempre querem ter um comércio aberto ou sempre querem manipular Os negócios que temos aberto, e posso prometer-lhe que isso só vai levar a menos e menos rentabilidade. Se você quiser ser bem sucedido usando a estratégia de longo prazo que estou apresentando a você, você deve aceitar que não haverá um Tonelada de entradas que é uma coisa boa, na minha opinião e que não haverá uma necessidade de saltar para o comércio aberto e gerenciá-lo. Aqui está como a estratégia works.1 T ake um olhar para as cartas mensais e semanais. Olha para as tendências sobre esses gráficos de longo prazo que têm bom impulso na direção respeitada Algo como this. WEEKLY CARTA DE TREND. Identify a direção da tendência urso ou touro e fazer uma nota para apenas olhar para as entradas na direção dessa tendência para instance, if it is a bullish trend, look for buys.2 Zoom into the Daily Chart and draw a Fibonacci Retracement from the current high to current low or the other way around. Here is how to draw a Fib Level for those that don t know.3 Look for pullbacks on the Daily time frame that are approaching the 38 2, 50 0, or 61 8 Fib Levels. usd cad daily forex chart. If price is getting close to one of those 3 key fib levels, be prepared to make an entry.4 Look for Candlestick Entry after Fib Level is Tested touched by Price. As soon as price touches a weekly Fib level, you are now in the waiting for signal mode In other words, the criteria has lined up for you to make a trade, now all you need is the signal to confirm your forecast. For this strategy, the signal is a momentum daily bar in the direction of our long term trend An ideal daily signal candle will have a tail that has tested pierced through the Fib level, but then reversed back into the direction of the trend. test of fib level.5 Take the Entry Place your stop and target.6 th Wait then win or lose. Just like I showed you in the video above some trades win and some lose. Don t try to manage the trade or get fancy, just trust the strategy and let the trade be a winner or a loser Trading is all about Math a good strategy has winners and losers, but at the end of the year, the winners out-weigh the loser They will in the strategy if you follow it with discipline. Hope you guys enjoyed learning one of my favorite long term strategies Please leave a comment with any feedbackment if you plan on trying the strategy or comment if you hate the strategy. Either way, I d love to get your feedback. Winners Edge Trading is offering a special discounted offer to our long term trading system Learn about it here limited-time SPECIAL OFFER. Enjoyed the writing and video s but will have to go over it again a few times as I am a newbie and using longterm for the fist time Thank you for the information, they are helpful and exciting. I think the reason most people try to scalp is they are taught to be scared of the market by teachers that are trading failures I agree with Nathan, the trader that is here for the long term is a swing trader data that can be used is measured in volumes instead of snippets next thing to get past is letting a profitable trade run and not being so scared of a loss you fail to maximize profits one piece of advice I would give every trader is learn enough about Elliott Wave to distinguish the difference between motive waves and corrective waves and once you see the tell tale sign of one, know what the most likely out come of the next move it a retrace or breakout, and how far is it expected to travel so I can set profit targets with no guess work and I can set stops that only trigger when I am proved to be wrong trading everyone Tim. Nathan, how do you deal with the swap rates with this longer term strategy. I trade this way but often have to close a trade due to the overnight swaps What broker do you use I am looking for a broker with competitive swap rates, I know some pairs have a positive value but I cant consider that when looking at the longer trends Thanks, Tom. Thanks Nathan An awesome strategy It is my favourite strategy My problem is I lack the necessary patience it needs to be profit able You wrote Trading is all about Math a good strategy has winners and losers, but at the end of the year, the winners out-weigh the losers They will, in the strategy, if you follow it with discipline if I may add, AND PATIENCE Great write-up Very encouraging I am definitely going back to this strategy in 2014.Excellent strategy, I have been looking for a good simple long term strategy, this will free up my time and still allow me to be involved in trading Thanks very much. Thanks for reading I am glad this article may serve as a useful piece of information for you Feel free to re-post here later on and let us know how your strategy is going using these longer time frames. Thanks Louis, I appreciate you taking the time to read and also leaving a comment Let me know how you do using this strategy. Hey Joe, thanks for the great comment, I really appreciate you putting the time and effort into adding value to this post with a great, informative comment I don t believe I have ever heard anyo ne lay out the reasons for using the daily chart as you did, and that is very interesting I would love to learn more about your strategy, Perhaps you could write out a nice explanation of it like I did in this article and we could post it on the blog as a guest post by you I am sure our readers would love to get your perspective. Hi Nathan, I agree with longer time frames and specifically days not hours, minutes or weeks I my self only trade off day charts, and these are my reasons 1 Spread eats up a large part of an intraday trade often 10 or maybe more 2 The broker is acting against you he loses if you win, and he wins if you lose This is in the fine print of all new accounts A dealing desk will give lower spreads but will actively make you lose 3 Days are the natural time frame for trading, where as hours or minutes or weeks are arbitrary units 4 Candles were always meant to be on days from the earliest time in Japan this is how they started 5 Days means you can plan trades at ease I think these are compelling reasons to trade from day charts, so that s what I do Joe PS If you are interested, I just look for trends and jump on I use pairs that naturally tend to trend for long distances such as the Euro crosses among others EURNZD etc I use MA8 and MA12 When the MAs are both rising, and the 8 is above the 12, I put a long entry just above the most recent high I trail along the MA8 until BE, then along the MA12 when it catches up I raise the stop to below a candle that suggests the trend may have ended eg a pin bar against my trade If it isn t taken out I wait for the MA12 to catch up and keep trailing the opposite of all this for shorts No fib levels used Pretty successful. Thanks for this, I have tried this some on dly hrly charts and had some success, but needed these s l target levels to work on your longterm trades with this system with advise outcome down the road. Thanks for the information, I plan to start the new year with longer time frames and I was going to use 4 hour charts But now I will look at weekly and daily charts more. HEY NATHAN, GOOD ARTICLE. AS FAR AS LONG TERM VS SHORT TERM, BEING SUCCESSFUL IS ABOUT FINDING WHAT SUITS YOUR PERSONALITY WHEN I STARTED TRADING FOR A LIVING I THOUGHT DAY TRADERS WERE NUTS I TRADED LONG TERM AND GOT KILLED BLEW UP 2 ACCOUNTS. THEN I TRIED SHORT TERM AND FOUND IT SUITED MY PERSONALITY WAY BETTER NOW I TRADE SYSTEMS USING 1HR, 15 MIN, 5 MIN AND 5 PIP RANGE BARS I AM A DISCIPLINED BUT NOT A PATIENT ONE THERE ARE THINGS YOU CAN PICK AND CHOOSE WHEN YOU TRADE, BUT YOU CAN T IGNORE WHAT YOU ARE. Pretty good stuff Tracy U a good honest Guy Compared to all the crapp out there in the Forex arena We appreciate u MERRY CHRISTMAS GOD BLESS. Hey Fabrice As always, thanks so much for your time and effort into learning and your constant appreciation it means a lot to us For me, candlesticks are definitely an important part of seeing levels One thing that speaks volumes to me are when there are repeated wicks of a ca ndle that tried to pierce through a certain price level but continued to get rejected This shows me that price has made multiple attempts to move to a higher or lower price but kept getting pushed back by the level When this happens over days and weeks on these longer time frames, I know that this is a big, important level Then, what I look to do, is pair that with another level For instance, if the major horizontal level also corresponds with a Fib from a recent swing or a current trend line, that adds even more value to the price level Once I clearly identify these important levels, I just wait for price action to react to them and then attempt to take advantage of the reaction If it is a trend line and horizontal combination and price rounds out right at the level and begins to continue the long term trend, I will certainly be looking to take that trend continuation trade because it is a high probability entry and, most importantly, I have very major level to protect me against pric e going against me even if it is trying to bounce the other way and retest the trendline level fib or whatever For me, candlesticks help me see price the best, but that definitely does not mean they are the only way to trade profitably it is just my personal preference and you should have your own preference too. Excellent and simple strategy Will be adopting this one. Hi Nathan, To me, this is excellent stuff with precious tips and avices like going WITH the longer time frames trend, where to put stop-loss and target, avoiding entry if major level is too close from entry, I will definitely put that strategy into my trading plan What I love with you and Casey is your honesty and transparency not ONLY showing winners but clearly saying and showing that we will loose too I am always amazed with the quality of your articles and the knowledge you already have at your young age How good wil you be at 30 or 40 Just one very basic question how do you define and recognize a major level do you al ways look at candle charts only to spot it Thanks so much for all your efforts in helping us trading with an edge. Hi Zaheer, thanks for reading and leaving some feedback. Let me address your questions.1 This pin bar occurs pretty often, about 30 of the time I d say, because often times price moves slightly through the major level before reversing back to respect the level.2 I typically use a risk of 5 per trade, but if my trade management strategy includes potentially adding to the trade, then I would adjust the risk to make sure that I don t have risk of more than 1 open at one time.3 In this strategy, I am not typically going to add to the trade if it does continue in the larger trend direction, because my target is going to be too short to use that methodology In order to make the strategy as high probability as possible, I am only targeting the bounce to the next major level which is not normally going to be far enough away for me to begin adding positions in my favor.4 The pip gain on the bounce method changes drastically depending on the pair and the largeness of the swing that you are using the fib retracement on For instance, if the swing is several thousand pips like a massive run on the GBP NZD the distance between the fib levels which directly affects my stop and target will be much much different than a 500 pip swing on the EUR GBP. Hope the above answers your questions appropriately. Thanks again for reading and leaving a comment. Zamolxis Forex Robot. Are forex robots the holy grail Should we use forex robots or should we trade manually What strategies are the best How do we determine which forex robot is the best and what are the best ways to use it Under what conditions do they work Why most commercial robots fail Are backtests useless I m trying to answer these questions, but keep in mind that I m not interested in short term high gains I m aiming long term consistent profits, between 3-10 every month Quick profit involves a very high risk, this is one o f forex golden rules 30-40 per year is awesome considering the fact that the bank interest doesn t exceed 2-5 per year the most. Long story short My robot, Zamolxis has made a 128 profit during one year and 6 months period Which means.3,000 pips, an account growth of 4 7 per month This is near our target We could have set a different target higher profits , but high profits come with high risks and we can t accept that as we re aiming for long term profits. Here, at we treat forex as a business And before we start a business, any business, we need to know when exactly will get back our main investment. According to investopedia The yield is the income return on an investment, such as the interest or dividends received from holding a particular security The yield is usually expressed as an annual percentage rate based on the investment s cost, current market value or face value. For example, suppose we buy a nice house for 3,00,000 and rent it At the end of the year, we get a nice 21,000 re venue, which gives us an yield of nearly 7 per year After 14 years of renting, we finally recovered our main investment. On the other side, forex is a more lucrative business if treated as a business because the yield is much higher Zamolxis has an average yield of 35 60 per year which comes with a risk of 20 If you want to lower the risk to 2 , the profit is also reduced at 6 This is comparable to the situation we described above. For those of you who don t have the money or time to buy a house and rent it, we propose Zamolxis. But before diving into details, let s see how it works. What exactly a bayesian classifier does and how can this be applied to forex trading. I have written a very comprehensive article about bayesian filters, everyone can understand it, please check it out here. In machine learning, Bayes classifiers are a family of simple probabilistic classifiers based on applying Bayes theorem with strong independence assumptions between the features For example, a winning trade is strongly correlated with certain factors like volatility, pivot points, the difference between previous high and low and so on My initial approach was to gather as many inputs as I can coming for any forex robots I could find on the market including the ones I myself created, please see the My forex robots portfolio section The general assumption was that, no matter what strategy the robot uses, trend, pullback, scalper, countertrend , a winning trade can be statistically identified For example, trading around support and resistance points has a higher success probability compared to simply trading blind If you add an extra filter, like volatility, the success probability increases But the main problem is that the market is dynamic, the trading conditions always changes Today is a good day for scalping, tomorrow might be a food day for trend followers, next week might be a great week for grid trading We already know that optimizing the robot is not the answer because we are always o ne step behind the market. Tu put it simply, a bayesian filter calculates the probability of success based on several factors like support and resistance points and if the probability is good enough, a trade is being opened My forex robot, called Zamolxis is a mixture of bayesian filters and perceptrons sometimes neural network classifiers work better under certain circumstances and this robot uses both. I have spent an entire year trying to gather as much data as possible in order to feed the neural networks and bayesian filters Then, I let them learn and classify the market conditions all by themselves, no optimization was performed It survived in the wild without any optimization or tweaking The purpose was merely survival and learning, without any kind of trade filtering whatsoever, not the profit Now, the test is over and it s time to see the results This time, the robot is fully trained and ready to make money You can see the results here live account. My own demo forward test here. How does Zamolxis work. At first, it was a complete mystery to me why all forex robots fail in spite of such great backtests The answer is simple the market changes and it doesn t always follow past conditions You have to face many months and years of drawdown before you see the light at the end of the tunnel again What is my solution to this problem The approach is different First of all, I don t care about the drawdown anymore The lot gets increased after 3 or more losses and the robot recovers fast, the only thing I care is to keep a lower losing streak, in my case, no more than 7 losses in a row. This is not martingale, it s position sizing. The recovery function has nothing to do with martingale Martingale involves opening multiple positions while doubling the lot size and keeping them open until the all are closed for a profit or the account gets blown This is the fastest way to lose the account. My recovery function doesn t involve martingale, but position sizing, which is a very di fferent thing Zamolxis opens one position at a time. No system is highly profitable on the long run unless it is using some sort of recovery function or position sizing Zamolxis wins 51 of the trades considering the fact that take profit is always higher than stop loss It is profitable even without any recovery function but the profit is low Besides, nobody has the time to wait for years of drawdown, we already know that from our past adventures with forex robots That s why I created a realistic recovery function. I have backtested the robot from 2009 to 2016, saved all winning settings, then backtested it against unseen data, from 2003 to 2009 If the losing streak and drawdown doesn t change than I considered that setting to be a valid one and discarded the rest If the losing streak gets higher than 6, the strategy gets invalidated by the market changes and the robot has to be retrained Please note that this is not the holy grail, there is no such thing, it s just a trading tool. At the close of every bar, the market conditions are analyzed and classified with a bayesian filter and a neural network If the feedback is similar, the robot opens a trade Take profit is usually higher than stop loss, making the robot more reliable and trustworthy. It runs on multiple currencies, the supported currencies are EURUSD H1 , AUDUSD H1 , GBPUSD H1 , EURJPY H1 and USDJPY M30.It has a solid recovery function, the lot gets increased after 3 or more consecutive losses A very fast recovery is expected. Sometimes is trades every signal, sometimes it doesn t After a more careful analysis I reached the conclusion that sometimes, under certain conditions opening at every signal is a bad thing to do Why Suppose we re talking about a forex robot that opens a trade every time the current candle closes above bellow a moving average When a violent trend occurs many trades are being opened and if a more violent reversal occurs then we re out It s wiser to analyze the market conditions before start ing to open more than one trade in the same direction for the same strategy. Is a very and I mean very frequent trader, you won t get bored watching it. Pattern validation. If the market suffers major changes, the pattern is no longer valid and the robot should be retrained in order to learn the new market patterns. As I said before, it was a complete mystery to me why 99 of forex robots fail in spite of such great backtests One possible answer to this question is over-optimization curve fitting The forex robot is optimized from 2000 to 2016 and only the best looking equity curve is selected This is terribly wrong because that nice looking equity curve is only an accident that doesn t repeat so often in real trading Therefore, as a consequence, the robot fails a few month after the launch. A second possible answer is that the market changes to some degree and the strategy no longer works until the market changes in our favor again. My approach is different Stop loss is smaller than Take Prof it and no more than 6-7 losing trades in a row are allowed The recovery function makes sure that we are in profit all the time. I trained the robot from 2009 to 2016 and then tested it against unseen data, from 2003 to 2009 If the number of consecutive losses in a row doesn t change, then the pattern is solid enough. If the number of allowed losses is exceeded, then the market changed and the robot should be retrained. How recovery function works. The way this robot is designed is very important I need to know if the backtests are valid or not, this is the main problem of all forex robots. Optimizing the wrong way 99 of forex robot vendors are doing it, intentionally or not. The robot is optimized for the whole testing period, for example between 2000 and 2016 It selects only the best trades, the equity curve looks nice, everything is fine, then after a few months, it bites the dust At first, as I stated before it was a complete mystery to me why Then I realized that the market does not beha ve according to our backtests, the conditions change and therefore the pattern is broken The second important thing is that backtesting this way there is no checking procedure How can we tell if the backtest is valid or not We can t. Optimizing the right way. The robot is optimized using data between 2003 and 2009 Then, the robot is tested against unseen data, between 2009 and 2016 If the drawdown length, drawdown depth and number of consecutive losses remains the same, then the strategy is valid This is our main assumption. What is new in the current version v30.1 Trailing stop We don t want to lose the profits entirely if the market turns against us, especially when the traded lot size is bigger, therefore the robot has not the ability to decide when the trailling stop should be activated If the market goes in our favor, we can follow it and win big.2 Lot increment algorithm has been changed Suppose the starting lot is 0 1, then the lot increment goes as follows. If the 7th trade is lost , then the next lot size equals initial lot of 0 1 and the cycle continues If you lose a 7 trades cycle which never happened during 10 years of backtests , you lose 20 of your account, which will be recovered in no more than 3-4 months Awesome, right. However, thanks to the trailing stop function we added, if the lot size of a trade is 0 1 the initial lot size and the profit for that trade is higher than the initial tp, the lot size doesn t increment even if the next 3 trades are lost Why Because we are still in profit overall and we can afford to take one more loss or more with lot 0 1 initial lot Now we can win big if the market goes our way and we can take many future losses without the need to increment the lot size. To put it simple, the lot size rarely increases And this is a huge step forward because the risk is highly reduced.3 Multi currency trader without additional controller If for trades trades we have a profit of pips pips, the lot size doesn t get incremented For example, if trades 20 and pips 200, it means that for the last 20 trades all currencies we have a total profit of 200 pips We are satisfied with it and we don t see the point of increasing the next lot size even if the last trade has ended with a loss.4 Protection against stop loss hunting As much as we like to hide the sl and tp levels from brokers, is very unsafe to do it because the market may turn violently against us wiping up the account sl and tp remains in place, but there is an additional hidden function which does exactly that if the broker doesn t close the trade for profit even if tp is in place, the function activates and closes the trade.5 You can now close the trades manually for loss or profit You could have done it in the previous version also, but now all bugs have been fixed.6 The core algorithm has been reoptimized Neural networks and bayesian filters has been improved, the main purpose is to reduce the risk of ruin.7 New tp and sl setting feature In the previous version, th e sl and tp levels are not set when opening a trade, the trade is modified right after opening with the desired sl and tp levels Now you could activate the function which enables you to set tp and sl when opening a trade A rather useless function you may say, but some clients reported that this is the only way Zamolxis works on their broker, by setting tp and sl when opening a trade, not after.8 Please welcome to our new pair EURJPY. If you ask me, I think I succeeded in getting the best out of forex robot trading This page will serve as inspiration source for many forex robot vendors, but it s ok. So, is it more profitable than the previous version v20 Short answer is no, the overall profit is almost the same, but the safety is highly improved, the risk has been greatly reduced Please take a look at this picture, it s a comparison between the previous version and the current one. Let s take USDJPY for example Version 2 0 produces a profit of 145 18 and only 1532 pips Version 3 0 produces a profit of 102 15 and 3410 pips Which means the version s 2 0 higher profitability comes from a large number of increased lots which leads to a much larger risk See the difference. Let s see how it trades in the wild, how profits are protected in version 3 0.Thanks to our trailing stop function we added, sometimes when the market conditions are appropriate, you only risk 8 pips in order to get 82.Now, take a look at both forward tests The new version produced 1600 pips within 2 months while the previous one produced 3000 pips within 18 months The profitability is now focused on individual trades instead of just increasing lots This is a huge step forward. Overall profitability, if all pairs are traded in portfolio, is the same All years are profitable. Portfolio EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY. When I designed this system I had the followings in mind. I don t have the patience to suffer many years of drawdown Ok, I m finally admitting it, I m not a patient man even if I m doing all my best to become one But leaving aside my lack of patience, what s the point of waiting 2-3 years without even being certain of further recovery So, I m not willing to wait for recovery more than 3 months, the most The portfolio analysis shows a maximum drawdown period of 70 days, but in real life trading I m sure that it will be extended to 3-4 months Ok, so no more than 4 months without profit Please take a look at my former portfolio, for example read this post the main problem is the drawdown length Without a nice recovery function, you are doomed to wait for a hypothetical recovery for years. Drawdown depth should be no more than 25 of my account, the most I m willing to take such a risk if the recovery is fast Portfolio analysis shows a maximum drawdown of 15 but as I said before, real trading conditions are different and I m expecting a 25 drawdown. I have to know exactly when the strategy becomes invalid and when the robot should be retrained. Is the profit guaranteed. No, of cou rse not, aren t you tired of being scammed Nobody can guarantee the profit, no one can foresee the future and market changes All we can do is try our best according to our current knowledge of math, programming and statistics. Zamolxis Tradind System. Long Term Trading Strategy for Forex. There are a lot of reasons why I believe that longer term trading sets you up for success more so than using smaller time frames to trade, and I will get into several of those reasons within this article. I also lay out a few of those reasons in a more light-hearted tone in my Scalp vs Swing Article which has gotten a lot of attention. The first thing I want to do is clarify that when I say Long Term I am meaning at least looking on the daily charts I believe that one of the big issues with Forex traders today is that they are so caught up in short-term trading and scalping which again, I really do have a hard time believing traders can be profitable with , that they don t even recognize what long term tra ding is. I have had many traders say something like this to me I want to begin looking at long term trading because scalping has not worked for me I am now using a long term strategy, trading the hourly charts. See, I think the above statement is one of the issues with Forex Traders today and why so many have a lot of trouble being profitable. For some reason, the majority of traders especially beginners are so bent on scalping that they don t even have a realistic idea of what long term trading really is I know my friend, Zaheer will agree with me on this one. So again, when I am talking about Long Term Trading, I am talking about using the Weekly charts and even the Monthly as your guide for set-up potential and targets, and then, perhaps, using a lower time frame to actually execute the trade for more precision. Before I get into the actual strategy I want to share with you, I want dig a little more into why the right perspective is so important when it comes to trading long term strateg ies I know that many of you only care about the actual strategy guidelines, but I believe that the following information about perspective and a holistic approach is actually more important than the strategy guidelines comment below if you agree disagree with me on that. As an example of how this Short Term Mindset can get you into trouble, let s take a look at the EUR USD. Someone looking at the EUR USD on a 4HR chart would see something like this. EUR USD 4 HOUR CHART. In the above chart, you see that there is a lot of bullish momentum moving toward higher highs From this perspective, it looks as though all bullish continuation set-ups will be great entries however, a longer term view of the EUR USD at the same exact time tells a different story. WEEKLY EUR USD CHART. You can see by looking at the Weekly chart, that the EUR USD is in a long term down trend, and that the bullish rally on the 4HR chart is just a pull-back rather than a raging trend as it appeared before. Not only is it only a pullback, but it is a pullback heading into unsuspected resistance unsuspected if you only look at the 4HR and don t realize what is going on long term. If we move a little bit ahead in time, you can see a bearish bounce off the resistance level To the trader viewing only the 4HR chart, this may look like a great time to buy again in anticipation of Bullish trend continuation. buy set up on eur usd. What the 4HR trader may not realize is that this is not a pullback of the 4HR trend, but rather a continuation of the Weekly trend So, where the long term trader sees obvious Bearish continuation potential, the short term trader thinks this is just a pullback. So to the 4HR trader, this looks like an unexpected major reversal in the market, but to a long term trader, it is an obvious and expected continuation of market flow, looking like this on the Weekly view. This is why it is so important to have a long term view of the market ESPECIALLY if you are going to call yourself a long term trader Again, so many people looking at 4HR charts think they are long term traders, but they are ignoring the real long term time frames and that can get you into big trouble just like in this real life example Those two bearish weekly bars you see would crush someone trying to take long positions on the 4 Hour chart, yet they are just part of the flow on the Weekly view. Now, I am not saying that you cannot trade profitably on the 4HR charts I am saying that it is very difficult to make consistently profitable trades when you do not have a good perspective of the markets longer term movement especially when trying to trade an intermediate time frame like the 1 or 4 hour time frames. With that said, let s talk about my long term strategy for traders who want to be profitable and consistent. One major note about this strategy is that you must be disciplined if you want to succeed Yes, you need to be disciplined with all strategies to expect success, but in particular, if you want to trade a long term strategy effectively, you must control your emotions and desire to get into the market. One of the biggest mistakes that unprofitable traders make is over-trading and over-managing their trades As human beings, we have the desire for action and involvement which tends to cause us to always want to have a trade open or always want to manipulate the trades we do have open, and I can promise you that this will only lead to less and less profitability. If you want to be successful using the long term strategy that I am presenting to you, you must accept that there will not be a ton of entries which is a good thing, in my opinion and that there will not be a need to jump in to the open trade and manage it. Here is how the strategy works.1 T ake a look at the Monthly and Weekly charts. Looks for trends on these longer term charts that have good momentum in the respected direction Something like this. WEEKLY CHART OF TREND. Identify the direction of the trend bear or bull and make a note to o nly look for entries in the direction of that trend for instance, if it is a bullish trend, look for buys.2 Zoom into the Daily Chart and draw a Fibonacci Retracement from the current high to current low or the other way around. Here is how to draw a Fib Level for those that don t know.3 Look for pullbacks on the Daily time frame that are approaching the 38 2, 50 0, or 61 8 Fib Levels. usd cad daily forex chart. If price is getting close to one of those 3 key fib levels, be prepared to make an entry.4 Look for Candlestick Entry after Fib Level is Tested touched by Price. As soon as price touches a weekly Fib level, you are now in the waiting for signal mode In other words, the criteria has lined up for you to make a trade, now all you need is the signal to confirm your forecast. For this strategy, the signal is a momentum daily bar in the direction of our long term trend An ideal daily signal candle will have a tail that has tested pierced through the Fib level, but then reversed back into the direction of the trend. test of fib level.5 Take the Entry Place your stop and target.6 th Wait then win or lose. Just like I showed you in the video above some trades win and some lose. Don t try to manage the trade or get fancy, just trust the strategy and let the trade be a winner or a loser Trading is all about Math a good strategy has winners and losers, but at the end of the year, the winners out-weigh the loser They will in the strategy if you follow it with discipline. Hope you guys enjoyed learning one of my favorite long term strategies Please leave a comment with any feedbackment if you plan on trying the strategy or comment if you hate the strategy. Either way, I d love to get your feedback. Winners Edge Trading is offering a special discounted offer to our long term trading system Learn about it here limited-time SPECIAL OFFER. Enjoyed the writing and video s but will have to go over it again a few times as I am a newbie and using longterm for the fist time Thank you for the information, they are helpful and exciting. I think the reason most people try to scalp is they are taught to be scared of the market by teachers that are trading failures I agree with Nathan, the trader that is here for the long term is a swing trader data that can be used is measured in volumes instead of snippets next thing to get past is letting a profitable trade run and not being so scared of a loss you fail to maximize profits one piece of advice I would give every trader is learn enough about Elliott Wave to distinguish the difference between motive waves and corrective waves and once you see the tell tale sign of one, know what the most likely out come of the next move it a retrace or breakout, and how far is it expected to travel so I can set profit targets with no guess work and I can set stops that only trigger when I am proved to be wrong trading everyone Tim. Nathan, how do you deal with the swap rates with this longer term strategy. I trade this way but often have to close a trade due to the overnight swaps What broker do you use I am looking for a broker with competitive swap rates, I know some pairs have a positive value but I cant consider that when looking at the longer trends Thanks, Tom. Thanks Nathan An awesome strategy It is my favourite strategy My problem is I lack the necessary patience it needs to be profitable You wrote Trading is all about Math a good strategy has winners and losers, but at the end of the year, the winners out-weigh the losers They will, in the strategy, if you follow it with discipline if I may add, AND PATIENCE Great write-up Very encouraging I am definitely going back to this strategy in 2014.Excellent strategy, I have been looking for a good simple long term strategy, this will free up my time and still allow me to be involved in trading Thanks very much. Thanks for reading I am glad this article may serve as a useful piece of information for you Feel free to re-post here later on and let us know how your strategy is going using these longer time frames. Thanks Louis, I appreciate you taking the time to read and also leaving a comment Let me know how you do using this strategy. Hey Joe, thanks for the great comment, I really appreciate you putting the time and effort into adding value to this post with a great, informative comment I don t believe I have ever heard anyone lay out the reasons for using the daily chart as you did, and that is very interesting I would love to learn more about your strategy, Perhaps you could write out a nice explanation of it like I did in this article and we could post it on the blog as a guest post by you I am sure our readers would love to get your perspective. Hi Nathan, I agree with longer time frames and specifically days not hours, minutes or weeks I my self only trade off day charts, and these are my reasons 1 Spread eats up a large part of an intraday trade often 10 or maybe more 2 The broker is acting against you he loses if you win, and he wins if you lose This is i n the fine print of all new accounts A dealing desk will give lower spreads but will actively make you lose 3 Days are the natural time frame for trading, where as hours or minutes or weeks are arbitrary units 4 Candles were always meant to be on days from the earliest time in Japan this is how they started 5 Days means you can plan trades at ease I think these are compelling reasons to trade from day charts, so that s what I do Joe PS If you are interested, I just look for trends and jump on I use pairs that naturally tend to trend for long distances such as the Euro crosses among others EURNZD etc I use MA8 and MA12 When the MAs are both rising, and the 8 is above the 12, I put a long entry just above the most recent high I trail along the MA8 until BE, then along the MA12 when it catches up I raise the stop to below a candle that suggests the trend may have ended eg a pin bar against my trade If it isn t taken out I wait for the MA12 to catch up and keep trailing the opposite of all this for shorts No fib levels used Pretty successful. Thanks for this, I have tried this some on dly hrly charts and had some success, but needed these s l target levels to work on your longterm trades with this system with advise outcome down the road. Thanks for the information, I plan to start the new year with longer time frames and I was going to use 4 hour charts But now I will look at weekly and daily charts more. HEY NATHAN, GOOD ARTICLE. AS FAR AS LONG TERM VS SHORT TERM, BEING SUCCESSFUL IS ABOUT FINDING WHAT SUITS YOUR PERSONALITY WHEN I STARTED TRADING FOR A LIVING I THOUGHT DAY TRADERS WERE NUTS I TRADED LONG TERM AND GOT KILLED BLEW UP 2 ACCOUNTS. THEN I TRIED SHORT TERM AND FOUND IT SUITED MY PERSONALITY WAY BETTER NOW I TRADE SYSTEMS USING 1HR, 15 MIN, 5 MIN AND 5 PIP RANGE BARS I AM A DISCIPLINED BUT NOT A PATIENT ONE THERE ARE THINGS YOU CAN PICK AND CHOOSE WHEN YOU TRADE, BUT YOU CAN T IGNORE WHAT YOU ARE. Pretty good stuff Tracy U a good honest Guy Compared to all the cra pp out there in the Forex arena We appreciate u MERRY CHRISTMAS GOD BLESS. Hey Fabrice As always, thanks so much for your time and effort into learning and your constant appreciation it means a lot to us For me, candlesticks are definitely an important part of seeing levels One thing that speaks volumes to me are when there are repeated wicks of a candle that tried to pierce through a certain price level but continued to get rejected This shows me that price has made multiple attempts to move to a higher or lower price but kept getting pushed back by the level When this happens over days and weeks on these longer time frames, I know that this is a big, important level Then, what I look to do, is pair that with another level For instance, if the major horizontal level also corresponds with a Fib from a recent swing or a current trend line, that adds even more value to the price level Once I clearly identify these important levels, I just wait for price action to react to them and then at tempt to take advantage of the reaction If it is a trend line and horizontal combination and price rounds out right at the level and begins to continue the long term trend, I will certainly be looking to take that trend continuation trade because it is a high probability entry and, most importantly, I have very major level to protect me against price going against me even if it is trying to bounce the other way and retest the trendline level fib or whatever For me, candlesticks help me see price the best, but that definitely does not mean they are the only way to trade profitably it is just my personal preference and you should have your own preference too. Excellent and simple strategy Will be adopting this one. Hi Nathan, To me, this is excellent stuff with precious tips and avices like going WITH the longer time frames trend, where to put stop-loss and target, avoiding entry if major level is too close from entry, I will definitely put that strategy into my trading plan What I love wi th you and Casey is your honesty and transparency not ONLY showing winners but clearly saying and showing that we will loose too I am always amazed with the quality of your articles and the knowledge you already have at your young age How good wil you be at 30 or 40 Just one very basic question how do you define and recognize a major level do you always look at candle charts only to spot it Thanks so much for all your efforts in helping us trading with an edge. Hi Zaheer, thanks for reading and leaving some feedback. Let me address your questions.1 This pin bar occurs pretty often, about 30 of the time I d say, because often times price moves slightly through the major level before reversing back to respect the level.2 I typically use a risk of 5 per trade, but if my trade management strategy includes potentially adding to the trade, then I would adjust the risk to make sure that I don t have risk of more than 1 open at one time.3 In this strategy, I am not typically going to add to the trade if it does continue in the larger trend direction, because my target is going to be too short to use that methodology In order to make the strategy as high probability as possible, I am only targeting the bounce to the next major level which is not normally going to be far enough away for me to begin adding positions in my favor.4 The pip gain on the bounce method changes drastically depending on the pair and the largeness of the swing that you are using the fib retracement on For instance, if the swing is several thousand pips like a massive run on the GBP NZD the distance between the fib levels which directly affects my stop and target will be much much different than a 500 pip swing on the EUR GBP. Hope the above answers your questions appropriately. Thanks again for reading and leaving a comment. Why Us From the latest technology to protecting your funds, see why we re the best trading partner. Regulatory Authorisation Admiral Markets UK Ltd is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in UK. Contact Us Leave feedback, ask questions, drop by our office or simply call us. News Check out most recent news about our company, events, trading condtions positional trading. The idea behind this approach is making fewer transactions that produce larger individual gains While traders harnessing this strategy usually aim to make at least 200 pips per trade, their opportunities are far more limited. As a result, traders who use this approach require thorough preparation and substantial knowledge. Long-term strategies for trading FX. Positional trading exemplifies how to trade Forex long-term It involves identifying a trend, then following it for weeks or months. In some cases, traders have followed a trend for over a year When applying long-term Forex trading, buy based on expectations and sell based on facts. For example, speculators like George Soros heavily shorted the British pound in 1992 They were skeptical of the UK s ability to maintain fixed exchange rates at the time The country pulled the pound from the ERM 22 September 1992 and Soros made more than 1 billion on the deal. If you re seeking a more practical example of a long-term currency trading strategy, open a long position on the GBP USD, based on your belief that the currency pair will push higher after the upcoming British election Once you find out how the currency pair moves post-election, you can either close this position or keep it open. Keep in mind that if you trade the GBP USD you should consider economic events not only in the UK but also in the US Conduct thorough analysis on the economies of the two currencies and be sure to evaluate the potential for unforeseen events. This information is all you need to develop a long-term Forex trading strategy, but hey further education is always a good idea. A long-term strategy example. The previous section provided some general information on trading Forex long-term Now let s look at a long-term strategy in greater detail. Let s say you are a For ex trader based in the US and some political events have taken place that will likely impact USD Using the information you have at your disposal, you should analyse where the USD will go. If you think there is a good chance the currency will move in line with your forecast, you can begin your long-term Forex trading strategy by opening a USD pair position that reflects your prediction. But before doing so, you should consider where the second currency will likely go If you want to be conservative, pick a quote where you think the second currency will have the highest amount of stability. For example, if the developments affecting your currency pair are tied to the Middle East, your analysis might reveal that Japan lacks tight trade agreements with countries in the region, and the Japanese yen JPY has historically enjoyed stability. This information might lead you to think that the perfect pair for this trade would be the USD JPY. Once you figure this out, you should double-check your expect ations, then list all known plus expected events and their outcomes Covering all these variables is how you develop this and any other long-term currency trading strategy. How to trade Forex long-term. There are several tips that can enhance your FX trading. For starters, don t let your emotions affect your trading because they can seriously undermine your performance Turning losing trades into winning ones can be a challenge, but it can also be difficult to close a position out early and lose out on potential gains. No matter what happens, stick to your strategy. Every time you open a position, predict where the currency will go and how large the price movement will be You must also ensure that every trade has both a profit target and a stop-loss. Always have them figured out before you start using a long-term Forex strategy. Long-term trading best practices. While everyone has a different approach to trading, there are some general guidelines that apply to most positional traders These guide lines are based primarily on risk management and the FX market s inherent nature. Let s explore how they might enhance your trading strategies.1 Use very small leverage. When doing positional trading, you should stick to volumes that make up a small percentage of your margin One of your major considerations for long-term currency trading is ensuring you can easily sustain any common intraday or even intra-week volatility. Since a currency pair can easily move a few hundred pips in a day, you should make sure these price fluctuations won t trigger a stop-loss.2 Pay attention to Swaps. While trading Forex long-term can generate promising revenues, what really matters is profit. Pay close attention to swaps the fee charged for holding a position overnight Swaps can sometimes be positive But in many cases, they will be negative regardless of direction, so evaluating their expenses is crucial to making long-term Forex strategies profitable. In some cases, you can use a strategy where the pip gain is small but the Swap is favourable for you.3 Effort vs return ratio. Keep in mind that even with the best strategy, you may not reach your profit target This could easily happen if you use too little leverage If you only trade with a small amount of capital, you should expect proportionate returns. Because of this, always consider the amount of time spent on trading compared to the monetary rewards received. In most cases, you should use relatively large amounts of capital to make the effort vs return ratio worthwhile A great way to get a better sense of what return you will receive for your time without risking your capital is to open a demo account. Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus. Risk warning Trading foreign exchange or contracts for differences on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment Therefore, you should not inve st or risk money that you cannot afford to lose You should ensure you understand all of the risks Before using Admiral Markets UK Ltd services please acknowledge the risks associated with trading. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice Admiral Markets UK Ltd recommends you seek advice from an independent financial advisor. Admiral Markets UK Ltd is fully owned by Admiral Markets Group AS Admiral Markets Group AS is a holding company and its assets are a controlling equity interest in Admiral Markets AS and its subsidiaries, Admiral Markets UK Ltd and Admiral Markets Pty. All references on this site to Admiral Markets refer to Admiral Markets UK Ltd and subsidiaries of Admiral Markets Group AS. Admiral Markets UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FCA Register No 595450.Admiral Markets UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales under Companies House Registered Number 08171762 Company address 16 St Clare Street, London EC3N 1LQ, UK. Zamolxis Forex Robot. Are forex robots the holy grail Should we use forex robots or should we trade manually What strategies are the best How do we determine which forex robot is the best and what are the best ways to use it Under what conditions do they work Why most commercial robots fail Are backtests useless I m trying to answer these questions, but keep in mind that I m not interested in short term high gains I m aiming long term consistent profits, between 3-10 every month Quick profit involves a very high risk, this is one of forex golden rules 30-40 per year is awesome considering the fact that the bank interest doesn t exceed 2-5 per year the most. Long story short My robot, Zamolxis has made a 128 profit during one year and 6 months period Which means.3,000 pips, an account growth of 4 7 per month This is near our target We could have set a different target higher profits , but high profits come with high risks and we can t accept that as we re aiming for long term profits. Her e, at we treat forex as a business And before we start a business, any business, we need to know when exactly will get back our main investment. According to investopedia The yield is the income return on an investment, such as the interest or dividends received from holding a particular security The yield is usually expressed as an annual percentage rate based on the investment s cost, current market value or face value. For example, suppose we buy a nice house for 3,00,000 and rent it At the end of the year, we get a nice 21,000 revenue, which gives us an yield of nearly 7 per year After 14 years of renting, we finally recovered our main investment. On the other side, forex is a more lucrative business if treated as a business because the yield is much higher Zamolxis has an average yield of 35 60 per year which comes with a risk of 20 If you want to lower the risk to 2 , the profit is also reduced at 6 This is comparable to the situation we described above. For those of you who don t ha ve the money or time to buy a house and rent it, we propose Zamolxis. But before diving into details, let s see how it works. What exactly a bayesian classifier does and how can this be applied to forex trading. I have written a very comprehensive article about bayesian filters, everyone can understand it, please check it out here. In machine learning, Bayes classifiers are a family of simple probabilistic classifiers based on applying Bayes theorem with strong independence assumptions between the features For example, a winning trade is strongly correlated with certain factors like volatility, pivot points, the difference between previous high and low and so on My initial approach was to gather as many inputs as I can coming for any forex robots I could find on the market including the ones I myself created, please see the My forex robots portfolio section The general assumption was that, no matter what strategy the robot uses, trend, pullback, scalper, countertrend , a winning trade can be statistically identified For example, trading around support and resistance points has a higher success probability compared to simply trading blind If you add an extra filter, like volatility, the success probability increases But the main problem is that the market is dynamic, the trading conditions always changes Today is a good day for scalping, tomorrow might be a food day for trend followers, next week might be a great week for grid trading We already know that optimizing the robot is not the answer because we are always one step behind the market. Tu put it simply, a bayesian filter calculates the probability of success based on several factors like support and resistance points and if the probability is good enough, a trade is being opened My forex robot, called Zamolxis is a mixture of bayesian filters and perceptrons sometimes neural network classifiers work better under certain circumstances and this robot uses both. I have spent an entire year trying to gather as much data as possible in order to feed the neural networks and bayesian filters Then, I let them learn and classify the market conditions all by themselves, no optimization was performed It survived in the wild without any optimization or tweaking The purpose was merely survival and learning, without any kind of trade filtering whatsoever, not the profit Now, the test is over and it s time to see the results This time, the robot is fully trained and ready to make money You can see the results here live account. My own demo forward test here. How does Zamolxis work. At first, it was a complete mystery to me why all forex robots fail in spite of such great backtests The answer is simple the market changes and it doesn t always follow past conditions You have to face many months and years of drawdown before you see the light at the end of the tunnel again What is my solution to this problem The approach is different First of all, I don t care about the drawdown anymore The lot gets increased after 3 or more losses and the robot recovers fast, the only thing I care is to keep a lower losing streak, in my case, no more than 7 losses in a row. This is not martingale, it s position sizing. The recovery function has nothing to do with martingale Martingale involves opening multiple positions while doubling the lot size and keeping them open until the all are closed for a profit or the account gets blown This is the fastest way to lose the account. My recovery function doesn t involve martingale, but position sizing, which is a very different thing Zamolxis opens one position at a time. No system is highly profitable on the long run unless it is using some sort of recovery function or position sizing Zamolxis wins 51 of the trades considering the fact that take profit is always higher than stop loss It is profitable even without any recovery function but the profit is low Besides, nobody has the time to wait for years of drawdown, we already know that from our past adventures with forex rob ots That s why I created a realistic recovery function. I have backtested the robot from 2009 to 2016, saved all winning settings, then backtested it against unseen data, from 2003 to 2009 If the losing streak and drawdown doesn t change than I considered that setting to be a valid one and discarded the rest If the losing streak gets higher than 6, the strategy gets invalidated by the market changes and the robot has to be retrained Please note that this is not the holy grail, there is no such thing, it s just a trading tool. At the close of every bar, the market conditions are analyzed and classified with a bayesian filter and a neural network If the feedback is similar, the robot opens a trade Take profit is usually higher than stop loss, making the robot more reliable and trustworthy. It runs on multiple currencies, the supported currencies are EURUSD H1 , AUDUSD H1 , GBPUSD H1 , EURJPY H1 and USDJPY M30.It has a solid recovery function, the lot gets increased after 3 or more consecuti ve losses A very fast recovery is expected. Sometimes is trades every signal, sometimes it doesn t After a more careful analysis I reached the conclusion that sometimes, under certain conditions opening at every signal is a bad thing to do Why Suppose we re talking about a forex robot that opens a trade every time the current candle closes above bellow a moving average When a violent trend occurs many trades are being opened and if a more violent reversal occurs then we re out It s wiser to analyze the market conditions before starting to open more than one trade in the same direction for the same strategy. Is a very and I mean very frequent trader, you won t get bored watching it. Pattern validation. If the market suffers major changes, the pattern is no longer valid and the robot should be retrained in order to learn the new market patterns. As I said before, it was a complete mystery to me why 99 of forex robots fail in spite of such great backtests One possible answer to this question i s over-optimization curve fitting The forex robot is optimized from 2000 to 2016 and only the best looking equity curve is selected This is terribly wrong because that nice looking equity curve is only an accident that doesn t repeat so often in real trading Therefore, as a consequence, the robot fails a few month after the launch. A second possible answer is that the market changes to some degree and the strategy no longer works until the market changes in our favor again. My approach is different Stop loss is smaller than Take Profit and no more than 6-7 losing trades in a row are allowed The recovery function makes sure that we are in profit all the time. I trained the robot from 2009 to 2016 and then tested it against unseen data, from 2003 to 2009 If the number of consecutive losses in a row doesn t change, then the pattern is solid enough. If the number of allowed losses is exceeded, then the market changed and the robot should be retrained. How recovery function works. The way this ro bot is designed is very important I need to know if the backtests are valid or not, this is the main problem of all forex robots. Optimizing the wrong way 99 of forex robot vendors are doing it, intentionally or not. The robot is optimized for the whole testing period, for example between 2000 and 2016 It selects only the best trades, the equity curve looks nice, everything is fine, then after a few months, it bites the dust At first, as I stated before it was a complete mystery to me why Then I realized that the market does not behave according to our backtests, the conditions change and therefore the pattern is broken The second important thing is that backtesting this way there is no checking procedure How can we tell if the backtest is valid or not We can t. Optimizing the right way. The robot is optimized using data between 2003 and 2009 Then, the robot is tested against unseen data, between 2009 and 2016 If the drawdown length, drawdown depth and number of consecutive losses remains the same, then the strategy is valid This is our main assumption. What is new in the current version v30.1 Trailing stop We don t want to lose the profits entirely if the market turns against us, especially when the traded lot size is bigger, therefore the robot has not the ability to decide when the trailling stop should be activated If the market goes in our favor, we can follow it and win big.2 Lot increment algorithm has been changed Suppose the starting lot is 0 1, then the lot increment goes as follows. If the 7th trade is lost, then the next lot size equals initial lot of 0 1 and the cycle continues If you lose a 7 trades cycle which never happened during 10 years of backtests , you lose 20 of your account, which will be recovered in no more than 3-4 months Awesome, right. However, thanks to the trailing stop function we added, if the lot size of a trade is 0 1 the initial lot size and the profit for that trade is higher than the initial tp, the lot size doesn t increment even if t he next 3 trades are lost Why Because we are still in profit overall and we can afford to take one more loss or more with lot 0 1 initial lot Now we can win big if the market goes our way and we can take many future losses without the need to increment the lot size. To put it simple, the lot size rarely increases And this is a huge step forward because the risk is highly reduced.3 Multi currency trader without additional controller If for trades trades we have a profit of pips pips, the lot size doesn t get incremented For example, if trades 20 and pips 200, it means that for the last 20 trades all currencies we have a total profit of 200 pips We are satisfied with it and we don t see the point of increasing the next lot size even if the last trade has ended with a loss.4 Protection against stop loss hunting As much as we like to hide the sl and tp levels from brokers, is very unsafe to do it because the market may turn violently against us wiping up the account sl and tp remains in pla ce, but there is an additional hidden function which does exactly that if the broker doesn t close the trade for profit even if tp is in place, the function activates and closes the trade.5 You can now close the trades manually for loss or profit You could have done it in the previous version also, but now all bugs have been fixed.6 The core algorithm has been reoptimized Neural networks and bayesian filters has been improved, the main purpose is to reduce the risk of ruin.7 New tp and sl setting feature In the previous version, the sl and tp levels are not set when opening a trade, the trade is modified right after opening with the desired sl and tp levels Now you could activate the function which enables you to set tp and sl when opening a trade A rather useless function you may say, but some clients reported that this is the only way Zamolxis works on their broker, by setting tp and sl when opening a trade, not after.8 Please welcome to our new pair EURJPY. If you ask me, I think I s ucceeded in getting the best out of forex robot trading This page will serve as inspiration source for many forex robot vendors, but it s ok. So, is it more profitable than the previous version v20 Short answer is no, the overall profit is almost the same, but the safety is highly improved, the risk has been greatly reduced Please take a look at this picture, it s a comparison between the previous version and the current one. Let s take USDJPY for example Version 2 0 produces a profit of 145 18 and only 1532 pips Version 3 0 produces a profit of 102 15 and 3410 pips Which means the version s 2 0 higher profitability comes from a large number of increased lots which leads to a much larger risk See the difference. Let s see how it trades in the wild, how profits are protected in version 3 0.Thanks to our trailing stop function we added, sometimes when the market conditions are appropriate, you only risk 8 pips in order to get 82.Now, take a look at both forward tests The new version produce d 1600 pips within 2 months while the previous one produced 3000 pips within 18 months The profitability is now focused on individual trades instead of just increasing lots This is a huge step forward. Overall profitability, if all pairs are traded in portfolio, is the same All years are profitable. Portfolio EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY. When I designed this system I had the followings in mind. I don t have the patience to suffer many years of drawdown Ok, I m finally admitting it, I m not a patient man even if I m doing all my best to become one But leaving aside my lack of patience, what s the point of waiting 2-3 years without even being certain of further recovery So, I m not willing to wait for recovery more than 3 months, the most The portfolio analysis shows a maximum drawdown period of 70 days, but in real life trading I m sure that it will be extended to 3-4 months Ok, so no more than 4 months without profit Please take a look at my former portfolio, for example read th is post the main problem is the drawdown length Without a nice recovery function, you are doomed to wait for a hypothetical recovery for years. Drawdown depth should be no more than 25 of my account, the most I m willing to take such a risk if the recovery is fast Portfolio analysis shows a maximum drawdown of 15 but as I said before, real trading conditions are different and I m expecting a 25 drawdown. I have to know exactly when the strategy becomes invalid and when the robot should be retrained. Is the profit guaranteed. No, of course not, aren t you tired of being scammed Nobody can guarantee the profit, no one can foresee the future and market changes All we can do is try our best according to our current knowledge of math, programming and statistics. Zamolxis Tradind System. Effective Long Term Strategies. After observing my clients trade and observing the way certain currency pairs behave it became evident to me that it is easier to trade forex long term then it is to trade it short t erm There are many reasons why it is easier to trade forex long term than short term below are just a few. Click here to order your copy of The VXX Trend Following Strategy today and be one of the very first traders to utilize these unique strategies This guidebook will make you a better, more powerful trader. First just look at the weekly chart for any currency pair, it looks far smoother with a lot less noise Our research department has tested systems on daily, weekly, hourly and other smaller intraday time frequencies and it is evident that the bigger the frequency on the chart the better the performance It is easier to trade smoother charts. The market also tends to panic and make drastic moves Usually after that buy programs for institutions step in and correct it and the moves end up being just noise. Third the forex market is unregulated and usually traded off exchange for the retail trader thus the FCM s are able to spike the market because they are taking a risk on a lot of the tr ades By spiking the market they can make a lot of traders that have stops near by loose their money to the FCM This is a tactic used by market makers If you are trading long term you are far less likely to loose in these situation. Another big issue is commissions Forex has very high commissions compared to other markets This is usually incorporated in the spread So every time you make a trade you are paying 30 to the FCM By trading long term you are trading less and thus not paying as much. The Trend is Your Friend. One great property that the forex market offers is that it trends great In this article I will particularly concentrate on the EUR USD This is particularly evident on a longer term time frame chart such as a weekly where all of the daily noise is eliminated Below is an example of a Weekly chart of the EUR USD with the Heikin-Ashi Trend Candles Heikin-Ashi Trend Candles are a great Japanese technical tool whose proprietary formula is beneficial in determining the trend this to ol is available in a software package that my company offers, if you would like to know more about the package you can join a free seminar that they conduct every Wednesday at 9pm EST by clicking this link. Look how well the market trended over this 3 year period and how well the Heikin-Ashi Trend Candles captured the trend. Keys to Trading the Trend. Now as you probably already know I preach risk and money management and when it comes to trend trading nothing can be more important that risk and money management In the next section I will show you a basic strategy for trading the trend Although the drawdowns get fairly high because of the inevitable whipsaw periods when the market does not move trading the trend may be easier than you think Now the main quality that you need to have as a trend trader is a strong stomach, you really need to be able to sit through the drawdowns and keep taking more and more trades Many successful traders trade the trend I am sure you know the Boston Red Sox , their owner John W Henry made a lot of his money trend trading Another example is the turtle traders and Richard Donkien. Position Size Control. Now first and foremost it is critical to control your position size when trading the trend This is by far the most important rule The whipsaws will be vicious and will cause you to loose a great deal of your account if you are trading to big, not to mention have a drastic impact on you psychologically A lot of my clients don t use stops or targets or really follow any intense technical analysis What they do is simply trade in the direction of the overall trend, try to trade in the direction of the SWAP collect interest and sit through the drawdowns If they had large positions they would be easily margin called out of their trades. Technically it is extremely difficult to keep your self out of the market during whipsaw periods This is actually next to impossible in my opinion As a trader you have to take every trade of the system you trade becau se you never know which one will be the huge break out of the period that you have been waiting for as a trend trader Now the key from a risk management standpoint is to maximize the amount that you make on the trend and minimize the amount you loose on the whipsaw within the realm of your system. There are a few ways to do this Many successful floor traders used to pyramid into their trades meaning take a position and than add a smaller portion as the price moved in the direction of their trade This is a good strategy, I personally like to scale up in these situations meaning I will keep adding the same size to my position at each trigger point Now the important tactic in each of these strategies is to get out of the whole position as soon as you receive an exit signal based on your rules This could be a technical signal or profit target. The fist tactic is incredibly simple and was tested out effectively by our research department Other filters can be added to this tactic to improve it One of the systems that our firm trades teaches and sells is a variation of this strategy. Long Entry and Exit. Enter when the price crosses above the previous weeks high. Add to the position every time the price crosses above its previous weeks high Do not enter more than once per week so if the price crosses below the previous week s high and crosses back above it do not enter. Exit the whole long position when the price crosses below the previous weeks low. If the previous weeks high is not the highest high of the particular move do not enter the trade. Short Entry and Exit. Enter when the price crosses below the previous week s low. Add to the position every time the price crosses below its previous weeks low Do not enter more than once per week so if the price crosses above the previous week s high and crosses back below it do not enter. Exit the whole short position when the price crosses below the previous weeks high. If the previous weeks low is not the lowest low of a particular move d o not enter the trade. So essentially with this strategy you are always in a trade This is because you are flipping the position and entering with the minimum amount should the trade cross above or below the key level. I recommend starting this system with 1 to 1 leverage and scale up into the trade at each signal In other words you should trade this system with 1 mini lot per 10,000 in your account. In the example below you would enter long with 1 unit of your position every time you see the pointer and exit and flip the position when you see the thumbs down. This strategy is extremely simple and effective as long as you manage your drawdown properly This strategy is an example of how you can use risk management parameters to enhance the performance of your trading system I would recommend using additional filters such as ATR, ADX, and Volatility since they help you gauge the strength of the trend If you would like to learn our advanced version of this system or many other systems that we offer, please contact me at. Alexander Nekritin is a professional trader with over 8 years of experience His specialties include risk management and system development Alexander is the CEO of which is a forex introducing broker and education company that helps suite client s needs in forex trading Alexander has a degree with a concentration in Investment Banking and derivative instruments from Babson College in Massachusetts. A Long-Term Strategy To Conquer The FX Market. Copyright MarketClub All rights reserved User Agreement. 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CFTC RULE 4 41 HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc discussed in this advertisement and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations All ideas and material presented are entirely t hose of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher or No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses No representation or implication is being made that using the MarketClub methodology or system will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses The testimonials and examples used herein are exceptional results, which do not apply to the average member, and are not intended to represent or guarantee that anyone will achieve the same or similar results Each individual s success depends on his or her background, dedication, desire, and motivation.